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Civil-military tensions are destabilising Turkey

Wednesday, June 24, 2020

Significance

This is mainly because of Erdogan's politicisation of the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) after the July 2016 failed coup. His fear of the generals, a power struggle within the TSK (notorious for frequent coups, although the most recent attempt failed) and his military adventures abroad have come to the fore with talk of a coup.

Impacts

  • Any officer in a position to attempt a coup will either be kept under close watch or shifted from any real position of authority.
  • The YAS meeting due in August may indicate what influence Defence Minister Akar has over senior-level promotions and retirements.
  • Turkey's S-400 purchase from Russia will continue to upset US-Turkish military relations, but not improve Turkey's air defence.
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