Riyadh will manage tribal marginalisation backlash

Significance

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's centralised approach to governing takes less account of tribal interests than his predecessors did.

Impacts

• Riyadh will likely increase the compensation offered to tribes and families living in areas claimed for new projects.
• The government will sharpen criticism of any prominent tribal figures speaking against it, depicting them as terrorists or Qatari agents.
• Subverting the trend of social reform, Riyadh will likely afford tribal communities greater internal autonomy to exercise tribal law.
• The economic downturn will delay and curb ambitious projects such as Neom, but they are unlikely to be cancelled.