South Korea’s ties with key countries will worsen

Subject

South Korea's international relationships.

Significance

South Korea’s government is celebrating the success of its response to COVID-19, but the country’s four key foreign relationships all face difficulties -- those with the United States, China, Japan and North Korea. No other countries or regions are vital to Seoul, despite vaunted ‘Southern’ and ‘Northern’ initiatives.

Impacts

• A prolonged deadlock on funding the US military presence in South Korea could push Seoul closer to Beijing.
• If President Xi Jinping visits South Korea later this year, Washington could easily misread this.
• Substantial fence-mending with Japan may have to await new leaderships in both countries.
• South Korean President Moon Jae-in may have tacitly given up on North Korea, which has visibly given up on him.