COVID-19 will reshape the EU’s defence priorities

Subject

EU defence priorities.

Significance

EU spending and cooperation on security and defence matters have slowly but steadily increased over the last two decades, culminating in the creation of a Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) in 2017. The fiscal consequences of the COVID-19 crisis will halt this timid progress, at the EU and national levels, causing losses in the capabilities of European militaries and severe damage to the European defence industry.

Impacts

• European defence budgets will fall significantly below the 2% of GDP target, potentially further straining transatlantic relations.
• The economic recession will see Italy, among others, increase pressure on the EU to lift sanctions against Russia.
• Growing distrust and opposition towards Beijing will increase EU efforts to reduce economic dependence on China.