COVID-19 crisis may not benefit Sahelian jihadists

Subject

COVID-19 and jihadists.

Significance

Jihadist attacks are rising across the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin regions, as are conflict fatalities more broadly. However, the increase cannot be solely, or even primarily, attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic. The remote areas where jihadists fight are in the early stages of their respective outbreaks; much of the increased violence reflects pre-existing conflict dynamics. Many of the fatalities, meanwhile, are caused by state security forces, who may be taking advantage of the pandemic, even more than jihadists are, to target civilians with relative impunity.

Impacts

• Sensitive talks between humanitarian aid groups and jihadists may determine the level of famine in parts of the Sahel over the short term.
• Relationships between governments and human rights groups and journalists will grow even tenser during COVID-19-related restrictions.
• Accurate information about conflict zones may become harder to obtain amid restrictions and increased government defensiveness.