Nigeria’s Lagos will struggle to curb COVID-19 spread

Subject

Lagos' eased lockdown.

Significance

Lockdown restrictions in densely populated Lagos State, the country’s economic hub, as well as Ogun State and Abuja, the initial epicentres of Nigeria’s COVID-19 outbreak, were eased from May 4. With the partial reopening of businesses, Lagos' authorities are trying to enforce containment measures, including a night-time curfew, social distancing requirements and compulsory wearing of face masks. However, these have proven difficult to implement.

Impacts

• Abuja is unlikely to intervene in future Lagos restrictions, given Buhari's partial lockdown strategy has been viewed as ineffective.
• The authorities may be forced to try alternative control methods, such as staggered business operating days or select 24-hour curfews.
• Schools may not be able to re-open or businesses run at full capacity until towards the end of the third quarter of the year (at least).
• The governor’s standing has been boosted by his crisis response despite controversy over a ban on commercial motorcycles on Lagos' roads.