Guinea’s presidential polls will be next battleground

Significance

The twin votes were marred by an opposition boycott, allegations of electoral fraud and apparent state-backed violence. With a COVID-19-related state of emergency now in operation, the Front for the Defence of the Constitution (FNDC), an umbrella civil society and opposition movement which opposed the new constitution, faces difficult strategic choices as it seeks to prevent President Alpha Conde seeking a third term in December’s scheduled presidential elections.

Impacts

• Conde’s likely candidacy will further polarise the country and heighten the risk of civil unrest.
• In the event of an opposition candidate winning the presidency, the new constitution will almost certainly be repealed.
• A Conde candidacy and poll-related violence could see the EU issue targeted sanctions against Conde and his allies, including travel bans.