New coalition may split the vote in Ethiopia’s capital

Subject

Elections in Addis Ababa.

Significance

Balderas for True Democracy, a newly established regional party for the capital Addis Ababa, and the All Ethiopian Unity Party (AEUP), one of Ethiopia’s oldest national parties, have agreed to form a coalition. While the new coalition nominally reduces opposition fragmentation, it may nevertheless more firmly split the opposition vote in the nation’s capital.

Impacts

• The first-past-the-post electoral system should favour the ruling party if the opposition vote remains divided.
• The ruling party may enjoy a nationalist boost over its strong stance against Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
• Addis Ababa’s centrality and visibility increase the chances of free and open electoral competition compared to outlying areas.
• If the COVID-19 crisis worsens, elections may yet be delayed.