Somalia's military manoeuvres raise regional risk

Significance

The strongly worded statement came shortly after Somalia came in for criticism in the UN Security Council for deploying hundreds of troops to Jubaland’s Gedo region, near the border with Kenya, amid an ongoing battle for influence with Jubaland President Ahmed Madobe, a Kenyan ally.

Impacts

• Further unrest may undermine FGS support among Gedo clans, as violence and displacement of local communities take a toll.
• An FGS military offensive against opponents in Galmudug region will deepen fears of aggression elsewhere.
• Growing discord between Ethiopian, Kenyan and Somali forces will hamper the AU Mission in Somalia’s already difficult withdrawal plans.
• The FGS may try to leverage political divisions in north-east Kenya to increase pressure on Nairobi.
• Al-Shabaab may exploit the domestic political chaos to entrench its position further.