US Congress will challenge deterrence strategy

Significance

Trump and his immediate predecessors have made extensive use of powers granted in the wake of the 9/11 attacks to deploy armed force widely across the Middle East and North Africa. The Democratic-controlled House of Representatives seeks to curtail this. For the administration, this is a direct challenge to its ability to rebuild deterrence, in an age of rising inter-state competition, through greater military capability and convincing rivals that it can and will be used.

Impacts

• Trump will campaign electorally on rebuilding the US military and deterrence capability.
• The administration will continue ‘maximum pressure’ against Iran but avoid new highly provocative steps.
• Trump will seek to reinvigorate North Korea talks and push his Middle East peace deal, to boost re-election prospects.
• Congress, especially Democrats, will try to limit Trump’s foreign policy powers, unsuccessfully, without veto-proof majorities.
• Unless and until Trump is re-elected, US allies and adversaries will be less likely to bow to administration policy pressure.