Morocco will use migration to buy EU political support

Subject

Outlook for EU-Morocco ties.

Significance

Last year’s figures showed a steep drop in arrivals of irregular migrants to Spain from Morocco. This has consolidated Morocco's position as a strategic partner for the European Union. Morocco stands out as the only politically and economically stable country in North Africa, and is a key partner for the EU in stemming migration flows from Africa and enhancing its strategic interests on the continent.

Impacts

• Negotiations over a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area are at a stalemate and are unlikely to reach a conclusion in 2020.
• With slow eurozone growth in 2020, Moroccan exports, especially cars and tourism, will suffer; migrant remittances will also stagnate.
• Triangulation between the EU, Morocco and Sub-Saharan Africa is set to become an important field of cooperation in the near future.
• The status of Western Sahara in EU-Morocco trade, agricultural and fisheries agreements will face repeated challenges before the ECJ.
• The European Council and Commission will find political workarounds to accommodate Moroccan interests in such disputes.