North Africa will struggle to rein in wheat imports

Subject

Outlook for North African wheat purchases.

Significance

Algeria has announced plans to reduce its wheat imports this year, which have traditionally been among the highest in the world. However, constraints on water and arable land suggest that filling the gap through increased domestic production will be a formidable challenge. Egypt, meanwhile, is also seeking to control its consumption levels through reforming bread subsidies, while Morocco’s cereals sector remains vulnerable to the vagaries of the weather.

Impacts

• The political imperative of ensuring citizens can rely on supplies of bread, couscous and pasta means funding imports remains a priority.
• The need to procure huge volumes of wheat exposes countries to risks arising from constraints in water availability and price fluctuations.
• The importance of wheat procurement has created vested interests, skilled at manipulating price differences to their advantage.