Oromo coalition will trouble Ethiopia’s ruling party

Subject

Coalition-building ahead of Ethiopia's 2020 elections.

Significance

Following months of negotiations, the leaders of the three biggest Oromo opposition parties -- the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC), Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and Oromo National Party (ONP) -- on January 3 announced the formation of the Coalition for Democratic Federalism (CDF). This new platform will pose a serious electoral challenge to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s newly formed Prosperity Party (formerly the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF)) in Oromia, Abiy’s home state.

Impacts

• As the OFC is already a member of the Forum for Democratic Dialogue in Ethiopia (MEDREK) opposition alliance, the CDF may also join.
• Ethiopia’s first-past-the-post electoral system will encourage further coalition-building, especially among opposition parties.
• If the CDF pushes claims of Oromo ‘ownership’ over Addis Ababa, this would complicate relations with other actors.