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Conditions for a Libya peace deal are poor

Thursday, January 9, 2020

Significance

The previous day, the foreign ministers of the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy -- in an unusual show of unity --rejected the Turkish intervention and also called for an immediate ceasefire. However, the statement does not refer to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) -- the foreign state with the longest and most substantive involvement in Libya. Berlin is due to host an international meeting on Libya, possibly before the end of January, but the date is likely to slip.

Impacts

  • The GNA will muddle along but without much impact on public services and the lives of ordinary Libyans.
  • Key economic institutions such as the central bank and national oil corporation, while nominally under the GNA, will operate independently.
  • Oil production will be the sole positive, with output of around 1.2 million barrels per day.
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