CAR faces challenging path towards peace and elections

Subject

Outlook for the Central African Republic's peace process and elections in 2020.

Significance

After five years of persistent instability, a reduction in violence and humanitarian pressures finally arrived after a new peace agreement was agreed in Khartoum in early 2019. The state has moreover begun to extend its administrative reach and reconstruct its security forces. However, stability is far from restored and 2020 will offer a new set of challenges as elections approach at year-end.

Impacts

• The UN will push to see elections held on time and a planned Truth, Justice, Reparation and Reconciliation Commission established promptly.
• Sporadic violent incidents will continue; conditions are particularly fragile in Bangui’s PK5 district and in the far north.
• Former President Francois Bozize’s return from exile and mooted presidential bid will raise political tensions.