Divisions over EU defence integration look set to grow

Subject

Future EU defence integration.

Significance

The Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) and the European Defence Fund (EDF) have become key pillars of EU defence policy, but divergence between member states is increasingly making defence integration slow and limited. In addition, opposition towards third-party participation and arms exports, and uncertainty about the future EU-UK security relationship, threaten to diminish the capabilities of future EU defence projects.

Impacts

• London’s exclusion from the EU’s Galileo project suggests Brussels does not want close UK collaboration in future EU initiatives.
• The EU will likely prioritise steps to enhance European defence industry integration in order to reduce duplication and overspending.
• National-level defence spending could stall over the coming years as a result of slowing economic growth across the euro-area.