West African coastal states will fear jihadist threat

Subject

Jihadists' coastal threat.

Significance

Deteriorating security and widening jihadist control in eastern Burkina Faso, combined with the wider security crisis in the Sahel region as a whole, have raised credible fears that jihadist violence and other security crises could spread into coastal West African countries (Benin, Ghana, Ivory Coast and Togo). Sporadic terrorism has occurred in some of those countries in recent years, notably the attack on an Ivorian resort in March 2016 and a kidnapping in Benin’s Pendjari National Park in May 2019. Yet there is still more reason for caution than alarm when it comes to predicting the spread of jihadism in West Africa, given the Malian and Burkinabe insurgencies took years to unfold.

Impacts

• Regional governments may look to increase assistance to President Marc Christian Roch Kabore’s administration ahead of the 2020 polls.
• Joint security efforts involving Burkina Faso and its coastal neighbours will prove piecemeal given their sporadic, underdeveloped nature.
• A 2018 joint security initiative and resulting arrests suggest Benin and Togo may be the more vulnerable to new jihadist infiltration.