Romania’s political renewal is still unlikely

Significance

The PNL is on the verge of replacing the former communist Social Democratic Party (PSD) in office. The change is more apparent than real. Both wish to lower expectations and anchor politics around the distribution of patronage rather than problem-solving.

Impacts

• Infighting will plague the PSD but its factions may be able to prevent any steep erosion in their main power base at local level.
• Political disagreements preventing the nomination of an EU commissioner will ensure that EU vigilance towards Romania remains high.
• The PSD’s departure could boost investor confidence in Romania, badly shaken during the Dragnea period.