Northern insecurity will plague Nigerian authorities

Subject

Nigeria's northern insecurity.

Significance

Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) dominate outsiders’ perceptions of insecurity in northern Nigeria. However, civilians in different parts of the north can be victims of up to at least six different violent actors: jihadists; the security forces; militias; 'farmer-herder' clashes; bandits and cattle rustlers; and kidnappers. Patterns of violence vary from place to place and some zones are considerably safer than others, but the overall atmosphere is one of insecurity -- underlining that the state’s weakness extends well beyond the crisis-torn north-east.

Impacts

• The north-west crisis will cause further strain for neighbouring Niger, both through increased refugee flows and border insecurity.
• The massive economic gap between the north and the wealthier, safer south-west may be partly obscured by macro-level data.
• Kidnappings of foreigners are relatively rare, but kidnapping risks must now be factored into virtually any city-to-city road trip.