Uzbek entry to Eurasian bloc will be slow and halting

Subject

Possible Uzbek membership of the Eurasian Economic Union.

Significance

Uzbekistan has long distanced itself from Russian-led post-Soviet blocs, but it is now considering whether to join the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Its accession would bring another large economy into the EEU, which was originally conceived with Ukraine as a member and has suffered from its absence. The current heavyweight members are Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus; Armenia and Kyrgyzstan have small, weak economies.

Impacts

• EEU membership would give Uzbekistan's economy a major boost with reduced-tariff regimes for its exports.
• Belarus would welcome the entry of another counterweight to Russian dominance.
• Western investment in Uzbekistan will be further dwarfed by China and Russia.
• Russia-China rivalry in Central Asia will be secondary to their common interest in limiting US influence.