Turkish invasion of north-east Syria is a risky gambit

Significance

The offensive has, however, exacerbated Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s already-strained relations with the United States and EU. The longer fighting persists and the farther Turkey tries to penetrate, the higher the risk that the United States in particular will impose severe sanctions and send the Turkish economy deeper into recession. Although tensions between Washington and Ankara serve Moscow's interests, Russia too has no desire to see Turkey expand the area of Syria it already controls.

Impacts

• The incursion has fuelled nationalist fervour inside Turkey and, in the short term at least, boosted Erdogan’s previously fading popularity.
• Yet it will not alleviate social tensions by providing a solution to the continued presence of so many Syrian refugees.
• US sanctions in particular would trigger a run on the Turkish lira.
• The international outrage over the incursion has made the PKK less likely to launch a bombing campaign inside Turkey.
• Such a respite may be short lived if international condemnations of Turkey are not followed by concrete measures.