Saudi attack will prompt a rethink of air defences

Significance

On September 14, a barrage of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and cruise missiles hit two major Aramco production sites at Abqaiq and Khurais with surgical accuracy. The attack demonstrated a capacity to overcome sophisticated defences and cause enough damage to cut Saudi crude oil production temporarily by more than 50%. Washington and Riyadh have both already said they believe Tehran is responsible, but no evidence has yet been produced to provide details of where the attacks were launched from. Discussions about the appropriate response are ongoing.

Impacts

• In the unlikely event of direct retaliatory military action, Iran would likely launch much more damaging attacks on Saudi infrastructure.
• Global momentum may shift further towards investment in anti-drone and cruise missile defence systems to include directed energy weapons.
• The attack will highlight the utility of built-in surplus capacity and redundant processes in oil and gas infrastructure.