Turkey may narrow its aims in protecting Syria’s Idlib

Significance

On August 30, Moscow announced a unilateral ceasefire, pausing a Russian-backed offensive that has been ongoing since late April, during which time over 1,000 civilians have been killed and more than half a million displaced. In August, pro-Damascus forces made substantial inroads into the last main rebel-held area in Greater Idlib.

Impacts

• Russia will observe the truce until at least mid-month to avoid jeopardising a Turkish-Russian-Iranian summit planned for September 16.
• In the medium term, loyalists will gradually restore control of areas east and south of major highways in the region.
• Moscow, Tehran and Ankara will keep sponsoring talks on constitutional reform as cover for the military character of their engagement.
• Moscow may accept a small buffer zone if pressed by Ankara (over Damascus’s objections) so as not to destroy Turkish-Russian ties.