Divided Catalonia will struggle to find a way forward

Subject

Catalan politics.

Significance

The Spanish Supreme Court is expected to rule in the coming months on the events of September and October 2017, when pro-independence Catalan leaders attempted to secede from Spain. With former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont still in Brussels and several other leaders in pre-trial detention, nationalist parties have been riven by disagreements over their quest for independence.

Impacts

• The economic and business impact would be significant only in the event of major disruption caused by demonstrations.
• In an extreme case where Barcelona threatened to declare independence, firms would move their registration to other parts of Spain.
• Any attempts at imposing formal international mediation will be rejected by the Spanish institutions and anti-independence Catalans.