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Divided Catalonia will struggle to find a way forward

Tuesday, September 3, 2019

Subject

Catalan politics.

Significance

The Spanish Supreme Court is expected to rule in the coming months on the events of September and October 2017, when pro-independence Catalan leaders attempted to secede from Spain. With former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont still in Brussels and several other leaders in pre-trial detention, nationalist parties have been riven by disagreements over their quest for independence.

Impacts

  • The economic and business impact would be significant only in the event of major disruption caused by demonstrations.
  • In an extreme case where Barcelona threatened to declare independence, firms would move their registration to other parts of Spain.
  • Any attempts at imposing formal international mediation will be rejected by the Spanish institutions and anti-independence Catalans.
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