East-west EU divides will persist under new Commission

Subject

CEE influence in the new Commission.

Significance

Disunited Central-Eastern Europe (CEE) lacks the power to influence EU agenda-building and needs support from others. This increases the role of French President Emmanuel Macron as his administration, the Renew Europe group, European Commission President-elect Ursula von der Leyen and the European People's Party (EPP) divide spheres of influence in the Eastern EU.

Impacts

• Maintaining the status quo will require functional collaboration between EU member states and getting CEE on board.
• Interest in further enlargement will continue to fade and Western Balkan support for the EU will fall without more EU involvement.
• Pro-EU and social modernisation movements may form in some CEE states in reaction to the dominant parties of recent years.