Maduro frailty will deepen Venezuela opposition rifts

Significance

Economic pressure on Maduro is mounting as foreign companies and banks respond to the August 5 US executive order tightening sanctions to prevent material assistance to his government. International efforts to broker a deal with the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) to remove Maduro are intensifying at a moment when his international alliances look vulnerable.

Impacts

• With Chinese and Turkish financial institutions reconsidering their positions, Russia has emerged as a key arbiter of Maduro’s fate.
• Withdrawal of the already diminished number of international companies working with Venezuela will deepen the economic crisis.
• As anticipation builds that Maduro will be toppled, radical right-wing elements will seek to marginalise Guaido in any transition.