No-deal Brexit will hurt fragile Greek economy

Subject

The impact on Greece of a no-deal Brexit.

Significance

The United Kingdom is deeply integrated into the European single market; its withdrawal without an agreement will have negative consequences for Greece, albeit difficult to estimate. Greek exports to the United Kingdom of goods and services, particularly tourism, are likely to be hit first. Lagging other EU member states, the Greek government is now preparing emergency plans for a no-deal Brexit.

Impacts

• The long-term outcome for Greek exports largely depends on the UK policy choice between ‘Fortress UK’ or trade liberalisation post-Brexit.
• Greek exports of dairy products are likely to be permanently reduced if the United Kingdom decides to protect domestic producers.
• The negative effect of a no-deal drop in tourism is expected to be long-lasting.