Ukraine is on track for another large grain harvest

Significance

Harvest performance so far supports optimistic predictions that it can repeat the record harvest and export volumes achieved last year. Grain crops account for about 40% of agricultural exports, which with ferrous metals are the key sources of foreign revenues.

Impacts

• Oilseeds will remain another lucrative export item: Ukraine is the world's largest exporter of sunflower oil.
• Bread prices will rise in response to shrinking domestic supply amid growing exports of flour.
• The government is likely to seek a new accord with exporters to define how much can be exported while ensuring national food security.