To read the full version of this content please select one of the options below:

Taiwan pro-China presidential candidate will struggle

Friday, August 2, 2019


The outlook for Taiwan's presidential election next year.


Taiwan’s main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), nominated Han Kuo-yu, the populist mayor of Kaohsiung, as its presidential candidate on July 28. He will attempt to unseat President Tsai Ing-wen in the presidential election slated for January 2020. Beijing, meanwhile, is implementing new measures to penalise Tsai for her uncooperative cross-Strait policy.


  • Beijing will strongly prefer a Han victory, but will probably avoid a public endorsement.
  • As the election nears, Beijing may tone down military intimidation, which in the past has backfired and aided Taiwan’s China-sceptics.
  • It is by no means certain, as Tsai may claim, that a Han presidency would jeopardise US support for Taiwan.

Related articles

Expert Briefings Powered by Oxford Analytica
Stay up to date
Sign up to the Expert Daily Briefings email alert and receive up-to-the-minute analysis of global events as they happen.
*If your university does not have access to Expert Briefings, visit our information page to find out more.