Russian protest crackdown reflects elite concerns

Significance

Peaceful protests against official attempts to disqualify opposition candidates from Moscow council elections were met with a level of force not seen in the capital since 2012, with over 1,300 arrests.

Impacts

• Further heavy-handed responses may not galvanise further protests but will undermine government legitimacy.
• While this is not beginning of the end for either regime or opposition, any earlier truce between them looks untenable.
• Tensions between the regular police and the National Guard will likely grow, especially as police are forced into public order roles.