Election run-off may cause Morales problems in Bolivia

Subject

Approaching elections.

Significance

With less than three months until the October 20 elections, campaigning is well under way and the main contenders have announced their candidates for Congress as well as their party programmes. Ahead in the polls, incumbents President Evo Morales and Vice-President Alvaro Garcia Linera are likely to win the first round, though the outcome of a second round is in more doubt. The opposition continues to contest the legality of Morales and Garcia Linera seeking a fourth term.

Impacts

• A close-run result will increase the likelihood of opposition claims of fraud.
• Polling figures may understate support for Morales in rural areas.
• Whatever happens in Venezuela before October, the election will be fought mainly on domestic issues.
• Even in the event of a Mesa victory, economic policies will not undergo abrupt change.