Europe will likely accept a weakened Iran nuclear deal

Significance

Mogherini said Tehran’s actions did not constitute an act of significant non-compliance. That comes after Iran raised the level of uranium enrichment above the permitted limit earlier this month. French President Emmanuel Macron in recent days has led European efforts to push for a reduction in tensions between Iran and the United States.

Impacts

• Iran’s stated policy of continuous escalation could nonetheless eventually lead it to cross a red line for the E3.
• The UK seizure of an Iranian tanker and Iran’s recent arrest of a French dual national will complicate the de-escalation push.
• A European trade mechanism will have little effect on overall commercial relationships.
• Russia and China will defend Iran in international forums and are very unlikely to undermine the JCPOA.
• As new sanctions targets become smaller in number, the United States may shift to cyberattacks to add pressure on Iran.