Brexit and trade.
As both candidates for the Conservative Party leadership say they would countenance the United Kingdom leaving the EU without a deal on October 31, the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit is increasing.
- A no-deal Brexit would leave the legal status of UK citizens residing in the rest of the EU uncertain.
- It would cause the pound to depreciate, partially offsetting tariffs and the costs of customs procedures.
- The EU will likely insist that any future trade agreement is contingent on London fulfilling its financial obligations for leaving the bloc.