Gas deals will not solve Mozambique's multiple crises

Subject

Mozambican political crises.

Significance

The IMF on June 21 predicted that Mozambican growth would increase to double digits from 2023 onwards, when prospective LNG projects come online. The Fund’s assessment came just days after an Anadarko-led consortium announced a final investment decision (FID) for a massive offshore LNG development in Area 1 of the Rovuma Basin in northern Cabo Delgado province. FID is expected to be followed later this year or early next by confirmation of a similarly largescale ExxonMobil-led project in Area 4 of the Rovuma Basin.

Impacts

• The ability of newer parties to challenge FRELIMO will be relatively limited, especially absent high-profile ruling party defectors.
• Insecurity in Cabo Delgado could worsen, as confirmation of new projects could give terrorists increased leverage for their attacks.
• Islamic State (IS) claims of responsibility for Cabo Delgado attacks are likely overblown, as there is little supporting evidence.