EU foreign policy fragmentation will increase

Subject

Structural challenges to EU foreign policy.

Significance

The EU lacks a consolidated foreign policy: member states play a predominant role in external affairs. However, given such domestic challenges as political fragmentation, adverse demographic change and rising populism, national foreign policy faces a future of more volatility and uncertainty. This could increase the need to bolster the EU’s foreign policy powers.

Impacts

• Positions on Russian sanctions and the Iran nuclear deal show the Council able to form a consensus on some important external issues.
• Germany and France will push for changed EU competition rules to allow ‘national champions’ to emerge against Chinese and US competitors.
• Regional neighbours in Northern and Southern Europe may deepen inter-governmentalism and cooperation, respectively.
• The EU could become a global trendsetter in climate change, especially if Germany and Poland agree to carbon neutrality by 2050.