Rising nationalism will drive Tanzanian foreign policy

Subject

Tanzanian foreign policy outlook.

Significance

On May 30, new Foreign Minister Palamagamba Kabudi told parliament that, under President John Magufuli, Tanzania would never ‘kneel’ before donors to obtain aid. Kabudi’s statement -- and his recent appointment -- suggest a deep underlying shift is underway in Tanzanian foreign policy.

Impacts

• The government will put more pressure on revenue authorities to use tax to compensate for slowing development aid.
• Authorities will actively enforce strict new investment and natural resources laws, to squeeze revenue from local and foreign investors.
• If domestic revenue falls short, the government may still reluctantly turn to traditional donors, or Chinese loans with fewer conditions.
• Tanzania will likely try to initiate and encourage more business deals with regional neighbours.