India-Pakistan dialogue is unlikely in the short term

Subject

Chances of formal diplomatic talks between India and Pakistan.

Significance

Narendra Modi and Imran Khan, prime ministers of India and Pakistan respectively, exchanged “pleasantries” at last week’s Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Kyrgyzstan. India-Pakistan tensions earlier this year escalated to the point of the two countries launching cross-border air strikes but, more recently, there was speculation that the two sides may engage in talks.

Impacts

• India will step up its security crackdown in Jammu and Kashmir state, targeting local insurgents.
• Pakistan will intensify efforts to internationalise the Kashmir problem, again using the UN General Assembly to raise the issue.
• India will halt criticism of China’s Belt and Road Initiative as part of its diplomatic engagement with Beijing.