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Mauritania elections augur more continuity than change

Monday, June 10, 2019

Subject

Outlook for Mauritania's presidential election.

Significance

Mauritania will hold a presidential election on June 22. The likely winner is Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, the long-time right-hand man and handpicked successor of outgoing President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz. An Ould Ghazouani victory would represent substantial continuity, but the balance of power may shift among factions of the ruling elite.

Impacts

  • An Ould Ghazouani victory might presage new investment in his home region, eastern Mauritania.
  • Foreign powers will likely be comfortable with an Ould Ghazouani presidency, which would signal continuity on security cooperation.
  • Mauritania’s Islamists may put up a respectable showing but are unlikely to represent a serious challenge.
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