Ortega will see out his term in Nicaragua

Subject

Nicaragua unrest.

Significance

Protests were held across Nicaragua on April 18 to mark the first anniversary of the beginning of demonstrations against President Daniel Ortega and his government. In the year since, the government has successfully consolidated its control through a combination of security crackdowns and legal challenges to the protests, effectively extinguishing the opposition movement for now. With Ortega’s position secure, he looks set to remain in power until the 2021 elections at least, ignoring opposition calls for early elections to resolve the conflict.

Impacts

• Economic decline will fuel outward migration, with the effects being felt primarily by neighbouring Costa Rica.
• Recent sanctions citing the Nicaragua Canal may indicate that further investors or individuals involved in that project could be targeted.
• Companies with links to Caracas could also be targeted, with Washington using Nicaragua to put pressure on Venezuela and vice versa.