Abortive Venezuela uprising weakens Maduro and Guaido

Significance

The military high command continues to back Maduro, contradicting Guaido’s claim that senior officials agreed to support his interim presidency. The failed uprising reveals major intelligence, strategic and communications failures within Guaido’s circle and the US government's ‘Venezuela transition’ team.

Impacts

• Purges in the armed forces and security sector can be expected.
• Both the Lima Group and International Contact Group will convene emergency meetings to consider options for a peaceful solution.
• The leadership of both Guaido and Maduro will come under pressure from within their own blocks.