US backing of Israel over Golan will come with costs

Significance

Trump asserted that the decision was necessary to promote regional security and stability. As with his 2017 decision to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, the president is breaking with an international consensus on the status of the Golan Heights, which was captured from Syria in 1967.

Impacts

• The decision will further undermine Palestinian confidence that the United States is an impartial broker.
• It will raise questions over the mandate of the UN Disengagement Observer Forces (UNDOF).
• A limited campaign of rocket attacks into the Golan Heights by Hezbollah or other Iran-backed groups is possible.
• The move will further highlight policy towards Israel as a partisan issue in US domestic politics.
• Some right-wing Israeli and US politicians will use the momentum to push for Israeli annexation of the West Bank.