Russia's policy on Bosnia seems to be hardening

Subject

Russian influence in Bosnia.

Significance

Russia seems much more adept at playing the Balkan political game than the EU or the United States. Thanks to that and the gradual weakening of Bosnia’s EU perspective, Russia has managed to fill the EU vacuum and establish influence over Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH) with a minimum of investment.

Impacts

• BiH could achieve EU candidate status in 2019 if it can satisfy the European Commission that it is meeting required conditions.
• The EU’s much stronger economic relations with Balkan states will limit Russian influence.
• Russia’s presence in both Bosnia and Serbia will continue to take the form solely of being able to influence Serbs.