Morocco’s weakened Islamists may yet win elections

Subject

Outlook for the PJD.

Significance

The new year has already seen several legal, political, and personal controversies involving the moderate Islamist Justice and Development Party (PJD), currently heading the government. Prime Minister Saadedine El-Othmani is struggling to unite the party and maintain popular support.

Impacts

• There may be a low turnout during the upcoming 2020 elections as Moroccans grow disillusioned by the lack of genuine reform.
• The Palace’s continued domination of politics and the economy may lead to informal mobilisation, likely in the form of consumer boycotts.
• Benkirane is unlikely to oppose the party openly to avoid weakening it, though he may become more vocal on the political scene.
• Morocco’s other Islamist movement, Justice and Spirituality, is unlikely to opt for direct political participation to avoid the PJD’s fate.
• Given the government’s passive role in policy decisions, international actors will prefer to negotiate directly with the Palace.