Nigerian insecurity could worsen after polls

Significance

Attacks by Boko Haram’s two factions pose the greatest immediate danger, but insecurity from banditry in Zamfara and Sokoto states and inter-communal conflicts across much of the north-central ‘Middle Belt’ could impinge on the elections and after.

Impacts

• An over-extended military and partisan political divisions will hamper the development of a coordinated counterinsurgency response.
• Journalists and human rights groups could face a growing clampdown over critical reporting on the military.
• Ethnic and religious-inspired Middle Belt clashes risk disrupting polling in rural areas and fuelling worsening cycles of reprisal violence.