Nigeria awaits close and contested presidential polls

Subject

Nigeria's presidential elections.

Significance

Nigeria will hold presidential and legislative elections on February 16, with incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari facing former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. Buhari has a slight edge based on a mass bloc of popular support in the north and a network of elite backers who can deliver voting blocs in the south-west. However, Abubakar is a formidable opponent and there is a significant chance of close, contested and even violent outcomes in multiple battleground states.

Impacts

• The presidential elections will set the tone for the almost equally consequential gubernatorial and state assembly elections to follow.
• Disputed presidential elections could see violence in hotspots such as Kaduna, Kano, Plateau or Rivers, including in gubernatorial polls.
• Widespread perceptions of bias in key institutions will further erode trust in the state, even if Buhari wins a popular mandate fairly.
• A weak showing by the PDP could suggest it is now primarily a sectional party representing the south-east and south-south.
• If Buhari wins despite faring poorly in the south-east and south-south, this could reinforce a sense of marginalisation in those regions.