Parallel powers will not resolve crisis in Venezuela

Significance

This creates a situation of parallel powers following President Nicolas Maduro’s inauguration for a second six-year term on January 10. The court in exile considered that Maduro is illegitimate and has usurped power, with authority thereby defaulting to the head of the Assembly. This interpretation is supported by the Lima Group, Washington and European countries including Germany and Italy.

Impacts

• The manoeuvre has outflanked Maduro and will deepen fissures over his leadership in the ruling party.
• The court’s ruling and Guaido’s move have taken the broader opposition movement by surprise and risk deepening fissures.
• Other opposition leaders may wait for Guaido to fail with an eye to stepping in.
• The armed forces will move centre stage as the arbiter of legitimate authority.