US foreign policy differences to sharpen in 2019

Significance

Trump entered office deeply sceptical of the importance of wars in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, but his critics say his troop-withdrawal announcements are timed to distract US public opinion from the Mueller probe into his administration and 2016 election campaign. Other critics -- some of them otherwise Trump’s allies, including Republican senators -- fear the troop withdrawals will raise the terrorism threat facing the United States.

Impacts

• A government shutdown tonight would see a further push for continuing resolutions to fund the government, pending further talks.
• Mattis had been a quasi-envoy to US defence partners in Asia; they will be concerned by his departure.
• Resurgence of terrorism in Syria or Afghanistan could undermine Trump politically, if the threat facing the United States rises.
• Republican Senate control should help Mattis’s replacement get confirmed more easily.