South Sudan oil sector optimism is premature

Subject

The performance and prospects of South Sudan’s oil sector.

Significance

The signing in September of a notional peace agreement has raised the question of whether South Sudan’s authorities can now boost oil production and revenues -- and whether they will use any new revenues to support peace.

Impacts

• Output is unlikely to rise far above 130,000-150,000 b/d in 2019.
• Details about oil revenues and their distribution will remain largely hidden.
• Major oil companies will continue to shun South Sudan as an investment destination.