China will build buffer with Afghanistan

Subject

Chinese security assistance to Afghanistan and Tajikistan.

Significance

China is reportedly providing direct aid to Afghanistan's security forces, including base-building, contributions of equipment and joint patrols to strengthen links and capacity. Some interpret this as a sign of a rising power expanding its military activities beyond its borders and expect Beijing to become more active in the region's political affairs.

Impacts

• Chinese economic involvement in Tajikistan may eventually bring some political leverage.
• Expanding Chinese economic involvement with Central Asia does not necessarily mean a greater military presence will follow.
• Regional governments and Western stakeholders alike will be frustrated by China's unwillingness to take a leadership role in Afghanistan.