Madagascar's presidential poll may not end instability

Significance

Rajoelina was installed as president following a military coup that toppled Ravalomanana in 2009. Following four years of protracted negotiations and pressure from international mediators, neither individual was allowed to contest the 2013 election. Given the longstanding rivalry between the two, there are fears over post-poll insecurity.

Impacts

• A protracted dispute over the election results could undermine solid economic growth prospects (5.4% for 2019).
• The runoff’s outcome will set the tone for the conduct of the scheduled legislative elections in April and municipal polls in August.
• Failure to pursue key governance reforms, such as tackling corruption or curbing subsidies, could jeopardise donor support.
• Hery's backing for Ravalomanana in the runoff would give the latter important additional support from a network of elected officials.